Macau January GGR Drops by 5.6% Year-on-Year to MOP18.25 Billion

For the second consecutive month, Macau has reported a year-on-year decline in January 2025. According to the Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), the region generated MOP18.25 billion (US$2.27 billion) in gross gaming revenue (GGR); this represents a 5.6% decline compared to January 2024, when GGR stood at MOP19.34 billion (US$2.39 billion).

While the January 2025 figure is higher than December 2024's 2% decline to MOP18.2 billion year-on-year, it still falls short of expectations. The drop has raised concerns about Macau's post-pandemic recovery trajectory, but the outlook remains mostly positive.

Unmet Expectations

Macau recorded MOP226.78 billion (US$27.9 billion) in GGR for FY24, a 23.9% increase from 2023. However, Q4 displayed slowing momentum, with December recording the first monthly decline in two years. Several factors impacted the performance, including Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit during the induction of Macau's new premier.

Expectations were high for an optimistic start to 2025, but January's GGR results fell short of anticipated performance. Citigroup analysts predicted a 6% annual rise for the first two months of 2025.

VIP Declines and Market Shifts

A significant contributor to Macau's GGR drop is reportedly the implementation of stricter gaming regulations to curb illegal cash flows. The new legal framework limits the role of junket operators, which attracted gambling whales to the region, resulting in a drop in VIP gaming. These operators are also prohibited from sharing gambling profits; only commission-based options are allowed.

Along with declining VIPs, the Macau government bans soliciting clients from mainland China. As a result, Macau has adjusted to rely on mass-market and premium-market gamblers. The mass-market sector now contributes over 77% of GGR.

Looking Ahead

Despite January's inability to keep pace, the general forecast still predicts a more optimistic rest of 2025 for Macau casinos. The government expects this year's GGR will reach MOP240 billion (US$29.9 billion), while analysts say it could rise by about 8%.

The outlook for the region remains positive as the industry continues to demonstrate stable footing despite challenges. As time goes by, several factors could affect these trajectories, including low high-roller numbers, the changing regulatory environment, and Macau's ability to draw in clients from Mainland China with improved visa policies.